This weekend, we’ve got a PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a great deal of money from this week and I can not wait to chase those big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $50k belongs to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier just tournament for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I won my first chair into it last week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $50k decoration, and then I will likely have a couple shots at the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for my money game lineup this week in his -800 gaming lineup. I will take that free square and proceed. He should dominate this battle and he can finish it on the feet or the floor. I expect him to score more than 100-points and I am totally fine with paying $9.6k for that. When I’m making lineups, I want to attempt to get at least 10x from each fighter. Together with Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points . That is how I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I didn’t think Jones would find a finish then perhaps he just dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t need that. However, this is a possible 5-round fight, and I really do expect Jones to control, so that cost is fine with me. For GPPs, I believe that you can get from Jon Jones because he’ll be quite highly owned. If he is 50% owned by the area and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then will kill off half the area because that would not be enough points to put him that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of this week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it will be from his wrestling. He is one of the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and today he’s finally getting an opportunity in the UFC after controlling every business he’s been in. He won’t want to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, so I expect him to shoot takedowns right away and string wrestle until he receives them. When he receives high control there isn’t going to be a lot Robbie can perform on the floor and he should take a beating so long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, each takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a substantial strike. A man like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns in 15-minutes and that is what makes him a great play if he is able to think of the success.
Underdog drama of the week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of old, but I think he has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the toes, the volume from Sanchez should acquire it for him there so long as he doesn’t get pumped out. The chin of Diego is what I worry about most these days, but Gall is not much of a striker and I don’t see him becoming knockout. In addition, I don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and I believe Sanchez are the more likely man to be on top if the fight hits the floor. There is A entry Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez has never been filed. We must have underdogs within our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego enables us to cover up for those guys like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he can grind out a determination win here I think he can get 10x that salary and when we could find a win against him at that inexpensive salary, then I think we will probably be in line for this $50k win if we hit our additional five spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using every fighter since I am making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the man I want the very least of. I attempt to get a favored for you guys as my fade of the week but I do not believe there are any need to fade favorites this week. Rather, I’m going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a opportunity. I believe a fluke KO is the only path to success for Smith and that he actually does not have the one punch/kick power that it might take to pull off. I would be amazed if Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I had been making 20 or less lineups, then he would be an easy fade.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 58-37 to get +177.62u (+$17,762) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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